我想获得具有标准误差的多项式logit模型的平均边际效应（AME）。为此，我尝试了不同的方法，但是到目前为止，它们还没有达到目标。
我的最佳尝试是使用下面显示的mlogit手动获得AME。
library(mlogit)
ml.d <- mlogit.data(df1, choice="Y", shape="wide") # shape data for `mlogit()`
ml.fit <- mlogit(Y ~ 1 | D + x1 + x2, reflevel="1", data=ml.d) # fit the model
# coefficient names
c.names <- names(ml.fit$model)[- c(1, 5:6)]
# get marginal effects
ME.mnl <- sapply(c.names, function(x)
stats::effects(ml.fit, covariate=x, data=ml.d),
simplify=FALSE)
# get AMEs
(AME.mnl <- t(sapply(ME.mnl, colMeans)))
# 1 2 3 4 5
# D -0.03027080 -0.008806072 0.0015410569 0.017186531 0.02034928
# x1 -0.02913234 -0.015749598 0.0130577842 0.013240212 0.01858394
# x2 -0.02724650 -0.005482753 0.0008575982 0.005331181 0.02654047
我知道这些值是正确的。但是，仅通过执行列的标准偏差就无法获得正确的标准误差：
# standard errors - WRONG!
(AME.mnl.se <- t(sapply(E.mnl, colSdColMeans)))
（注意： colSdColMeans()为列的SD提供了here。）
因此，这也导致我输入了错误的 t 值：
# t values - WRONG!
AME.mnl / AME.mnl.se
# 1 2 3 4 5
# D -0.7110537 -0.1615635 0.04013228 0.4190057 0.8951484
# x1 -0.7170813 -0.2765212 0.33325968 0.3656893 0.8907836
# x2 -0.7084573 -0.1155825 0.02600653 0.1281190 0.8559794
我知道这种情况下正确的 t 值是：
# D -9.26 -1.84 0.31 4.29 8.05
# x1 -6.66 -2.48 1.60 1.50 3.22
# x2 -2.95 -0.39 0.06 0.42 3.21
我了解到应该有一个“增量方法”，但是我只在Cross Validated上找到了一些非常特殊情况下具有交互作用的代码。
1。）软件包margins似乎无法处理"mlogit"
对象：
library(margins)
summary(margins(ml.fit))
2。）还有另一个用于伪装的软件包nnet
library(nnet)
ml.fit2 <- multinom(Y ~ D + x1 + x2, data=df1)
summary(ml.fit2)
但是margins也不能正确处理此问题：
> summary(margins(ml.fit2))
factor AME SE z p lower upper
D -0.0303 NA NA NA NA NA
x1 -0.0291 NA NA NA NA NA
x2 -0.0272 NA NA NA NA NA
3。）周围还有一个软件包，可以计算“多项式Logistic回归模型的平均效应” ，
library(DAMisc)
mnlChange2(ml.fit2, varnames="D", data=df1)
但是我无法从中得到一滴牛奶，因为该功能什么也不会产生（即使使用该功能的示例也是如此）。
我们现在如何使用 R 获得具有多项标准logit模型的标准错误/ t统计的AME？
df1 <- structure(list(Y = c(3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 3, 4, 2, 1, 4,
1, 5, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 2, 5, 4, 3, 2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 5,
4, 5, 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 2, 2, 4, 1, 5, 3, 1,
5, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 5, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2, 1, 5, 3, 2, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5,
1, 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 5, 3, 5, 1, 2, 5, 5, 1,
2, 3), D = c(12, 8, 6, 11, 5, 14, 0, 22, 15, 13, 18, 3, 5, 9,
10, 28, 9, 16, 17, 14, 26, 18, 18, 23, 23, 12, 28, 14, 10, 15,
26, 9, 2, 30, 18, 24, 27, 7, 6, 25, 13, 8, 4, 16, 1, 4, 5, 18,
21, 1, 2, 19, 4, 2, 16, 17, 23, 15, 13, 21, 24, 14, 27, 6, 20,
6, 19, 8, 7, 23, 11, 11, 1, 22, 21, 4, 27, 6, 2, 9, 18, 30, 26,
22, 10, 1, 4, 7, 26, 15, 26, 18, 30, 1, 11, 29, 25, 3, 19, 15
), x1 = c(13, 12, 4, 3, 16, 16, 15, 13, 1, 15, 10, 16, 1, 17,
7, 13, 12, 6, 8, 16, 16, 11, 7, 16, 5, 13, 12, 16, 17, 6, 16,
9, 14, 16, 15, 5, 7, 2, 8, 2, 9, 9, 15, 13, 9, 4, 16, 2, 11,
13, 11, 6, 4, 3, 7, 4, 12, 2, 16, 14, 3, 13, 10, 11, 10, 4, 11,
16, 8, 12, 14, 9, 4, 16, 16, 12, 9, 10, 6, 1, 3, 8, 7, 7, 5,
16, 17, 10, 4, 15, 10, 8, 3, 13, 9, 16, 12, 7, 4, 11), x2 = c(12,
19, 18, 19, 15, 12, 15, 16, 15, 11, 12, 16, 17, 14, 12, 17, 17,
16, 12, 20, 11, 11, 15, 14, 18, 10, 14, 13, 10, 14, 18, 18, 18,
17, 18, 14, 16, 19, 18, 16, 18, 14, 17, 10, 16, 12, 16, 15, 11,
18, 19, 15, 19, 11, 16, 10, 20, 14, 10, 12, 10, 15, 13, 15, 11,
20, 11, 12, 16, 16, 11, 15, 11, 11, 10, 10, 16, 11, 20, 17, 20,
17, 16, 11, 18, 19, 18, 14, 17, 11, 16, 11, 18, 14, 15, 16, 11,
14, 11, 13)), class = "data.frame", row.names = c(NA, -100L))
答案 0 :(得分：1)
我们可以做与您链接的答案非常相似的事情。特别是，首先，我们需要一个函数，该函数将在给定的系数矢量处计算AME。为此，我们可以定义
AME.fun <- function(betas) {
tmp <- ml.fit
tmp$coefficients <- betas
ME.mnl <- sapply(c.names, function(x)
effects(tmp, covariate = x, data = ml.d), simplify = FALSE)
c(sapply(ME.mnl, colMeans))
}
下半部分是您的，而上半部分则使用技巧来获取相同的ml.fit对象并更改其系数。接下来，我们找到带有
require(numDeriv)
grad <- jacobian(AME.fun, ml.fit$coef)
并应用增量方法。 grad %*% vcov(ml.fit) %*% t(grad)的对角线的平方根就是我们想要的。因此，
(AME.mnl.se <- matrix(sqrt(diag(grad %*% vcov(ml.fit) %*% t(grad))), nrow = 3, byrow = TRUE))
# [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5]
# [1,] 0.003269320 0.004788536 0.004995723 0.004009762 0.002527462
# [2,] 0.004375795 0.006348496 0.008168883 0.008844684 0.005763966
# [3,] 0.009233616 0.014048212 0.014713090 0.012702188 0.008261734
AME.mnl / AME.mnl.se
# 1 2 3 4 5
# D -9.259050 -1.8389907 0.30847523 4.2861720 8.051269
# x1 -6.657611 -2.4808393 1.59847852 1.4969683 3.224159
# x2 -2.950794 -0.3902812 0.05828811 0.4197057 3.212458
与Stata的结果相符。